On Netflix’s Growth

Ivan Liu Thoughts on Technology


Sell : Projected Growth Is Not Impressive Enough 

Summary

Netflix’s increased cost of international expansion has resulted in a substantial decline in earnings growth, yet the company’s stock price has risen dramatically.

Analysts are confident about the company’s ability to achieve growth by tapping into international markets, yet the growth for subscribers projected is not higher than past growth experienced.

Netflix is extremely overvalued and a risky portfolio holding. I am bearish on most US-listed equity anyway, but found this to be a stronger case worth noting.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3521666-sell-netflix-projected-growth-impressive-enough

 

我和作者結論一致,但觀點不同,我認為Netflix發展走下坡的原因者要有四個:

  • 授權壓力:

這是Netflix永遠揮之不去的夢魘,每回談判都被迫在內容提供商日漸高漲的授權金要求上鬼打牆,這次就失去了變形金剛;而它的自產內容還連1%都不到

  • 內容不足:

缺運動賽事、新聞(這兩種Netflix要補進來難度很高,畢竟各地MSO, 以及Comcast, Warner, Disney這些都不是好說話的大咖)、不少電影和電視劇仍須走DVD郵寄租借的老路(這點Amazon早已解決,已能在線上以串流方式租或購)。

  • OTT的轉換成本低:

Netflix不像Amazon在穩居全球最大電商之地位外,所額外加入的Prime membership(這一包US$99/yr的會員權益裡,除了和Netflix一樣的video streaming外,更包括快速到貨免運費、Kindle借書看報有限免費、數百萬首音樂隨選串流全部免費、雲端所有照片儲存免費)形成穩固的生態系。Netflix靠著每月US$7.99幾無利潤之超低價集客(它的財報上主要利潤都來自於DVD郵寄租借),但這樣的OTT客戶說轉就轉,我目前看不出Hastings能怎樣鼓勵效忠。

  • 目前還被自己競爭對手Amazon的AWS綁死:

Netflix不夠宅,在雲技術的底層能力太弱,又急於全球擴張必須考慮CDN,這些問題恐怕讓它幾年內都無法自立,在IaaS及PaaS上的支出亦為隱憂。