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eCounsel group

A boutique firm with unparalleled expertise in business and technology. We have good command of industrial ecology and legal practice, and have undertaken highly regarded cases. Because the small business scope, we pay more emphasis on effectiveness and efficiency, and choose clients with deliberation. The managing partner not only has extensive experiences in various legal issues more over than 20 years, but invests and manages several technology companies. In addition, he always checks each case rigorously. Clients’ business objectives are our primary focus. To achieve the same in the most cost-effective fashion trumps all seemingly sophisticated legal discussions.

The Trump Effect

2016 - 11 - 28

trump-on-stage

Markets worry about president-elect’s trade policy would be bad for Apple. Trump has publicly stated that he would force Apple to move its manufacturing back to U.S.

川普上台,市場普遍擔心新任美國總統的貿易政策將對蘋果不利,因為他曾公開表示:上任後將逼蘋果將產品生產搬回美國。川普效應對蘋果的影響,此篇作者的分析非常淺顯易懂,值得一讀,摘要如下:

1. 川普想讓蘋果回流美國製造及組裝
2. 川普請蘋果創造美國工人就業機會
3. 川普想對中國進口貨物課反傾銷稅
4. 川普想對企業調降海外盈餘匯回稅

(1)與(2)都不可能。各代iPhone從產品設計到最後之組裝所需之「應變」靈活度極高,目前尚非機器人能取代,之前Mac在美國的自動化產線也早已告停。

縱然搬回美國製造在財務上所大幅增加的人工成本(不論是否轉嫁消費者)尚不致於讓Apple進入負毛利,美國依舊找不出任何一個地方能生出那麼大量的skilled labor來建廠。

(3) 會帶來兩種效應,一是逼使iPhone搬去印度組裝(Foxconn在那兒佈局甚早,郭董是早就預測到了川普會上嗎?),二是中國對美企進行報復(各國企早已開始的「去IOE」(IBM, Oracle, EMC) 已經讓這些老牌B2B的IT廠很慘了,這下再燒到B2C的庫克,他想,萬一日後iPhone在中國被禁售…..)

(4) 確有可能。但是想用它來當誘因,拱Apple執行(1)(2),一樣機會渺茫。

新聞來源:
Apple: The Trump Effect

圖片來源:
Gage Skidmore @ Flickr CC BY SA 2.0

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