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eCounsel group

A boutique firm with unparalleled expertise in business and technology. We have good command of industrial ecology and legal practice, and have undertaken highly regarded cases. Because the small business scope, we pay more emphasis on effectiveness and efficiency, and choose clients with deliberation. The managing partner not only has extensive experiences in various legal issues more over than 20 years, but invests and manages several technology companies. In addition, he always checks each case rigorously. Clients’ business objectives are our primary focus. To achieve the same in the most cost-effective fashion trumps all seemingly sophisticated legal discussions.

Netflix v.s Amazon

2016 - 02 - 19

Netflix is going nowhere and there’s very little Hastings can do. Acquisition by Amazon (or others that may structure a similar eco-system) shall be its only way out as long as anti-trust issues are cleared.

在美國,NFLX靠著實體DVD的租賃訂閱還撐住EPS的大半江山;而在國際間,做得愈多賠得愈多。總之,若無意外,今年第四季它的EPS就會變成負值。

NFLX Q4, 2015 Q4, 2014
稅後淨利 [$43 million] [$83 million]
每股盈餘 [$0.10] [$0.19]
自由現金流 [-$276 million] [-$78 million]
內容取得成本 [$10.9B] [$9.5B]

Amazon市值約2800億美金,還在持續攀高中;Netflx只有420億,還在持續下探。

我們的結論是:Netflix前途黯淡,Hastings無力回天。在不違反反托拉斯法的情況下,由Amazon收購可能是其唯一退路。(當然,這得等Netflix的市值跌破200億才有意義,雖然這不符合Bezos傳統上的經營風格)

至於Amazon呢? 從底層AWS開始到Prime所建構之完整生態系,包括高規格到貨免運服務以及視頻/音樂/電子書之整合、再加上獨有的X-Ray(整合IMDb與影片中的相關metadata;除此之外,以Bezos的思路研判,日後應該會在Amazon video裡面推出embedded adaptive commercials plus one-click shopping “隱藏式適配廣告附一鍵購買功能”)

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