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eCounsel group

A boutique firm with unparalleled expertise in business and technology. We have good command of industrial ecology and legal practice, and have undertaken highly regarded cases. Because the small business scope, we pay more emphasis on effectiveness and efficiency, and choose clients with deliberation. The managing partner not only has extensive experiences in various legal issues more over than 20 years, but invests and manages several technology companies. In addition, he always checks each case rigorously. Clients’ business objectives are our primary focus. To achieve the same in the most cost-effective fashion trumps all seemingly sophisticated legal discussions.

Who's Going to Buy Netflix?

2016 - 10 - 09

This is old news, but there are still pundits believe that Amazon is going to buy Netflix.

雖然是舊聞,但還是有人<a href=”https://techcrunch.com/2016/10/07/whether-its-disney-amazon-or-apple-someones-definitely-going-to-buy-netflix/?ncid=rss&amp;utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Techcrunch+%28TechCrunch%29&amp;utm_content=FaceBook&amp;sr_share=facebook”>撰文</a>認為Amazon有可能會出手買Netflix。

朋友們知道,從Netflix股價還在上漲、消費者一片叫好的幾年前起,我們就始終唱衰它。雲端上技不如人、metadata更沒痛下功夫(前面這兩點是和Amazon去比的)、串流部分不論本土或海外都是怎麼做怎麼虧、唯一賺錢的model居然是日薄西山(只在美國提供)的郵寄光碟月租。

它目前全球用戶八千萬,原創及授權內容取得成本不斷暴增、末端售價有Amazon Prime和其他OTT壓著根本上不去,市值還有440億美金。
營收成長出現疲態、淨利率下滑、加上口袋裡也沒有其他能打的武器(這是和Bezos的佈局上差異最大的地方),絕對不會有救,Hastings遲早得賣。重點:價格。

我們的判斷:

Amazon根本不會理它,別鬧了
拿實體書店這門生意來看,Barnes &amp; Noble這間老字號的書店有六百多家,而Amazon又打算開個四百家,那請問,Jeff Bezo為什麼不乾脆用點手上的零錢(Amazon的市值是邦諾的500倍),買掉便宜到不行的邦諾、直接換掉店門口的招牌多方便? 各位要有興趣的話,可以挑戰一下自己的推理能力。

再者,2015年9月,Amazon還斥資五億美金,買下已經幫一堆傳統頻道搞數位轉檔和串流的軍火商 Elemental Technologies;這件事的長線謀略是什麼,任誰想都知道。Jeff Bezos的遠見和格局,不是Hastings能望及項背的。Amazon Prime Video光靠organic growth不出三年,Netflix應該就沒戲了,花幾百億鎂去併購它,沒必要。

至於迪士尼和蘋果,都不會出手買Netflix,讀者可以參考<a href=”http://seekingalpha.com/article/4010999-potential-netflix-acquirer-part-1-disney-apple”>這篇文章</a>,
1. Disney is a content creator, not a distributor.
Disney這種牛到不行的天量原創內容產生者,只需選擇與Amazon合作即可,毋庸承擔鉅額併購Netflix之風險,還能極度多元地透過電商之利基,提高其IP之價值

2. Apple is a hardware manufacturer, not a web services company.
如果Hastings敢作capital restructuring改由海外控股,倒是可以幫Apple消化其頭痛的國外現金部位,拉抬一下自己怎麼搞都搞不火的subscription model。但是庫克手上全部現金加短投才不過620億美金,哪能砸2/3以上用手上的現金併? 那貸款或換股合理嗎? 百來億或許有點機會。Beats至少賣耳機及喇叭還能掙到錢,員工也才幾百人,音樂串流就加減弄弄當成附屬品;NFLX長期看來只賠不賺,員工又有幾千人,這思惟是不一樣的,作者顯然看得太淺了。
(但作者這點講得不好。Appstore做得非常成功,iTunes也夠強,都幫蘋果賺進大把鈔票。我們認為,庫克不吃Netflix的最大障礙是第4點)

3. Netflix is too big and unnecessary for both of their business models.

所以作者的結論是 “Unless Disney or Apple go against their long-standing business models, they won’t be buying Netflix any time soon.”

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