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eCounsel group

A boutique firm with unparalleled expertise in business and technology. We have good command of industrial ecology and legal practice, and have undertaken highly regarded cases. Because the small business scope, we pay more emphasis on effectiveness and efficiency, and choose clients with deliberation. The managing partner not only has extensive experiences in various legal issues more over than 20 years, but invests and manages several technology companies. In addition, he always checks each case rigorously. Clients’ business objectives are our primary focus. To achieve the same in the most cost-effective fashion trumps all seemingly sophisticated legal discussions.

Netflix's Performance Continues to Decline

2016 - 02 - 19

We have always held a pessimistic view on the future of Netflix. This article on Seeking Alpha provides a similar insight.

我們對Netflix的未來,向來不抱期待。讀者如果好奇,可以先看Seeking Alpha的這篇文章;

Netflix: What Your Buyside Analyst Won’t Tell You

此篇重點,我們摘譯如下;
1. 在FANG四強中,Netflix的表現已難和其他三強相比。(FANG,包括Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google)
2. Netflix 持續成長並反映其估值的機會,幾乎為零。
3. 從Netflix的股權價格,已可看出形成泡沫的各種徵象。

Reed Hastings 把影視串流成為熱門產業,有其貢獻,但生意手段欠佳。以此模式經營 streaming platform,後續發展受限,亦難以取得資金來源。

以下我們提供幾個思考面向:

1.這幾年「文創」概念火熱,台灣很多VC也一窩蜂跟投影視內容製作,直接從源頭找內容製作,投資成效並不高,若以此方式來投資,也沒有必要建立streaming platform。

2.投資影視內容之製作,關鍵在於精深敏銳的藝術暨商業嗅覺,一般VC無此方面專業,注定失敗。

3.單純經營streaming platform 沒有明天?就算使用者繼續不斷成長,Hastings,一邊提高單位售價、一邊降低成本,是否能建立門檻?

IT技術?

自2016年1月起,Netflix沒有AWS就完全無法運作。2015,全球在公有雲上的支出是美金700億(從財報看AWS,它約占10%);IDC估計到2019會暴增到1410億。(Netflix Shifts All IT to Amazon’s Public Cloud)

內容取勝?

NFLX 這部分自製與授權成本逐年攀升,且Netflix掉了Epix的授權,MGM, Lion’s Gate and Paramount的電影都沒了,飢餓遊戲與變形金剛-絕跡重生(Transformer),也沒保住。

現金流?

財務上,它的長期與短期負債逐年暴增、自由現金流不斷遽降。

從這三方面看,Netflix的未來實在不樂觀。

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