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eCounsel group

A boutique firm with unparalleled expertise in business and technology. We have good command of industrial ecology and legal practice, and have undertaken highly regarded cases. Because the small business scope, we pay more emphasis on effectiveness and efficiency, and choose clients with deliberation. The managing partner not only has extensive experiences in various legal issues more over than 20 years, but invests and manages several technology companies. In addition, he always checks each case rigorously. Clients’ business objectives are our primary focus. To achieve the same in the most cost-effective fashion trumps all seemingly sophisticated legal discussions.

As Fed Finally Raises Rates

2015 - 12 - 07

Fed bets that low rates’ job benefits outweigh any financial disruption

2004,聯準會開始升息;2007,次級貸款這個核彈爆了,陷入大衰退。

Fed bets that low rates’ job benefits outweigh any financial disruption

一句話解釋次級貸款危機的核心:華爾街一群自以為聰明之人把鉅大風險披上糖衣的衍生性金融商品,並藉此賺取暴利。

2015,聯準會開始升息。

當年的次貸,透過精密惡毒的計算,把愈來愈多錢以貨幣乘數從銀行裡循環生出來、再借給那批信用根本不夠好的人去買房。當利率升、房價跌的時候,結果不言可喻,當然就是一間房一間房因為抵押貸款還不出而被拍賣,讓房價再進一步下跌。

WSJ作了簡單的折線圖,列出過去三次(1994, 1999, 2004)Fed調升利率時,存款、房貸、車貸利率之相應變化。

結論:

1. 存款利率幾乎沒動
2. 房貸利率前二次升,第三次微降
3. 車貸利率三次全升

最近這些年美國搞量化貨鬆,存款利率趨近於0,把天量的錢逼去了根本沒辦法作信用評等的爛公司所發行的高收益(垃圾)債券。這會兒升息,錢要從債券逃出往銀行回存,這種債券馬上要有多少違約、有多少這種爛公司要倒,大家可以拭目以待。

Ps:量化寬鬆(英語:Quantitative easing,簡稱QE)是一種非常規的貨幣政策,其操作是由一國的貨幣管理機構(通常是中央銀行)通過公開市場操作,以提高實體經濟環境中的貨幣供應量。中央銀行的操作,相當於間接增印鈔票。

新聞來源:
As Fed Finally Raises Rates, Pent-Up Risks Emerge

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