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A boutique firm with unparalleled expertise in business and technology. We have good command of industrial ecology and legal practice, and have undertaken highly regarded cases. Because the small business scope, we pay more emphasis on effectiveness and efficiency, and choose clients with deliberation. The managing partner not only has extensive experiences in various legal issues more over than 20 years, but invests and manages several technology companies. In addition, he always checks each case rigorously. Clients’ business objectives are our primary focus. To achieve the same in the most cost-effective fashion trumps all seemingly sophisticated legal discussions.

Netflix's Market Cap is Way Too High

2015 - 06 - 15

Does Netflix Have Long-Term Upside Past A $40 Billion Valuation?         

Summary

At $40 billion NFLX trades at multiples that far exceed the industry average, meaning it is an investment for the future.

In modeling 120 million peak subs at various price points, can NFLX trade higher long-term?

Is NFLX a good long-term investment right now?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3281525-does-netflix-have-long-term-upside-past-a-40-billion-valuation

非常好的分析

目前Netflix在全球有6000萬名付費串流會員,這部分成長快速;至於DVD租借會員只有550萬,而且還在不斷減少中;但諷刺的是,這550萬人卻貢獻出Netflix大部分的獲利($970萬中的$850萬)。

Netflix在內容取得上,成本日益上升;既然DVD租借已經日趨式微,那將來的利潤要從哪兒來?就得靠漲會員的月費,從目前的$8.99,調到本文作者認為尚屬合理的$15,但這樣當然會帶出會員被惹毛的風險,也會增加其估值上的不確定性。

我一直都認為,Netflix目前是個營運模式極其特定單一的video streaming platform,它的PE現在上看200倍,而且利潤裡的大部分居然還是由既傳統、又處於衰退中的DVD租借業務貢獻而來。會員數雖仍可成長,但大部分的分析師都認為會在一億多就封頂了。此外,它又沒有清楚的營收擴增之模式,因此,如果拿PE也極高、但卻提供了涵蓋人們生活諸多層面的Amazon完整生態系來比較,Netflix的股價對我而言,是毫無說服力的。

而Carl Icahn,這位身價二百多億美金的天王級投資人,已宣布賣光手上的Netflix持股,套現近十億美金。http://seekingalpha.com/article/3286075-should-you-follow-icahn-out-of-netflix

Netflix是個不錯的視頻平台,我也是忠實用戶。但我的判斷和作者一樣,它的China story一點都不靠譜,目前21倍的股價淨值比、以及一直往200倍在衝的本益比,絲毫不具備合理性。再加上,Netflix距離構築一個完整、客戶不易離開的生態系還遠得很,而且我認為這件事情並不在Hastings的priority list上;短期賺泡沫財這種事情我不擅長觀察,但其現階段的股價不具備長期投資價值,大致上已成定論。

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